DAX 40: consolidation amid technology sell-off

A wave of selling in the technology sector that emerged earlier this week has weighed on European equities. The trigger was investor concern over the profitability of large-scale debt-funded investments by major US tech companies in AI infrastructure. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell to their lowest levels in more than a week, with semiconductor manufacturers bearing the brunt of the decline.

In Germany, Infineon Technologies (-5.86%), Siemens Energy (-3.93%) and Vonovia (-3.21%) were among the worst performers, while SAP and Airbus ended the session in positive territory, gaining around 2% each. Geopolitical factors also remain in the background: a memorandum signed in June between the United States and Iran has yet to remove uncertainty, with implementation of the agreement still subject to ongoing negotiations.

Technical picture

On the H4 chart of the DAX 40 index (GDAXIm on FXOpen), after peaking around 25,450 at the end of May, price declined towards the 23,970 area, forming a downward trend structure. Following an attempted breakout of the downtrend and a gap on 15 June, the index moved into a sideways range, forming a POC zone at 24,940–24,950 and an upper boundary of the current profile at 25,070, with price now trading between these levels.

The nearest resistance could be located around 25,210, which could cap the market if the upper boundary of the profile is breached. Support could be seen in the 23,970 area, which could be reached if the lower boundary at 24,460 is broken. Volume remains moderate, confirming the consolidation phase. The RSI and moving averages are at 48, 54 and 54 respectively; the oscillator is below its moving averages, while the averages are converging towards neutral levels, indicating a lack of clear momentum within the current range.

Summary

Pressure on the DAX 40 is driven by a global reassessment of AI infrastructure valuations, which has triggered a sell-off in the semiconductor sector worldwide, including German equities. Price has returned to a balance area after the rebound, while the RSI remaining below its moving averages signals a lack of directional momentum on either side.

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