GBP/USD: Consolidation Ahead of the Bank of England Decision

The Bank of England is due to hold its next policy meeting on 18 June. According to a Reuters poll conducted between 5 and 12 June, all 65 economists surveyed expect the Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 3.75%, although around 40% of respondents anticipate at least one rate increase before the end of the year. Domestic data are also weighing on sterling: UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in April, marking the first monthly decline since August last year, while a Bank of England survey showed a notable rise in household inflation expectations amid the conflict in the Middle East. Uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy outlook, coupled with weakening macroeconomic data, is creating a mixed backdrop for the pair.

Technical Picture

On the four-hour chart, GBP/USD has formed a pattern resembling a descending triangle, with the upper boundary declining steadily while the lower boundary remains broadly horizontal. The pattern developed following the decline that began on 25 May and could be interpreted by market participants as a continuation formation within the broader downtrend that has been in place since the start of the year. At present, the price is attempting to return to the triangle range after briefly moving above the upper boundary and subsequently retreating.

The resistance area around 1.3460 remains relevant if the price fails to establish itself below the upper boundary of the profile at 1.3422 and the Point of Control (POC) zone at 1.3390–1.3392. On the downside, support in the 1.3325 area could become the nearest target in a bearish scenario should the lower boundary of the profile at 1.3356 be breached.

RSI + MAs are currently reading 51, 55 and 50. All three lines are clustered around the neutral zone, providing no clear directional signal.

Key Takeaways

The neutral readings of RSI + MAs, together with the possibility of the price returning to the triangle range following the recent pullback, contribute to an uncertain technical picture. The Bank of England's decision on 18 June and the accompanying policy guidance are likely to be the key factors shaping the pair's near-term direction.

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