Nasdaq-100: Price Concentrates Within the Market Profile Zone

Last week was one of the worst for US technology stocks since the beginning of 2026, with the index losing around 4.6% under the influence of two opposing factors. Firstly, the market continued to reassess the pace of returns on AI infrastructure investment — concerns that spending is outpacing actual returns triggered a sell-off in semiconductor stocks, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling nearly 8% over the week. Secondly, the US-Iran conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend: Tehran claimed responsibility for attacks on commercial vessels, while the US responded with air strikes. By Monday morning, tensions had eased somewhat as both sides announced a temporary halt to hostilities and agreed to hold talks in Doha on Tuesday. Against this backdrop, Nasdaq-100 futures gained around 1.1%.

Technical Picture

On the four-hour chart, the Nasdaq-100 (NDXm on FXOpen) has been trading within a sideways range since May, bounded by support near 28,600 and resistance around 30,700 — a range that formed following the June peak. After reaching that peak, the index experienced a sharp decline on 9 June, accompanied by exceptionally high trading volume. As a result of buyers defending the local lows, the price has since concentrated near the centre of the current range.

At present, the price is holding above the POC zone at 29,440–29,460, which may be viewed by market participants as the key point of attraction within the range. The price is approaching intermediate resistance at the upper boundary of the profile at 29,950, above which lies the red resistance level. RSI + MAs shows readings of 55, 43 and 45 — the oscillator remains above both moving averages, although the moving averages have yet to confirm a potential reversal and remain near the lower boundary of the neutral zone.

Key Takeaways

News of a pause in the US-Iran conflict supported the Nasdaq-100 at the market open, although concerns surrounding AI-related spending remain unresolved and were the primary driver of price action throughout June. The POC zone continues to serve as the key reference point for the balance between supply and demand: this is where the largest concentration of horizontal volume is located, and holding above this area could indicate that the market is preparing to continue its move towards the upper part of the range.

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