The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell broadly against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, dragging the price of AUD/USD to less than 0.9280 ahead of the monetary policy statement. The sentiment remains bearish due to Lower High and Lower Low in the recent wave.
As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 0.9277, the 76.4% fib level ahead of 0.9202, the swing low of the recent correction wave as demonstrated in the following chart. Not to mention, the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is also sitting around the 0.9200 handle, making it a confluence support area.
On the upside, the pair is likely to face a hurdle around 0.9317, the 61.8% fib level ahead of 0.9353, the 50% fib level and then 0.9389, the 38.2% fib level. The sentiment remains bearish as far as the 0.9470 resistance area is intact.
Australia Unemployment Rate
The rate of unemployment in Australia increased to 6.4% in July as compared to 6.0% in the month before, down beating the median projection of 6.0%, a government report revealed today. Generally speaking, higher unemployment rate is considered negative for the economy; hence the recent increase in the unemployment spurred selling pressure in the price of AUD/USD.
Monetary Policy Minutes
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is due to release the minutes from the monetary policy meeting on Friday. Investors will be eyeing the comments from the RBA policymakers very closely to get an idea about the future monetary policy outlook of the Australian economy.
Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, selling the pair around the 0.9433 resistance area appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term, the trade should however be stopped out on a daily closing above the 0.9470 handle.
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