EUR/GBP Technical & Fundamental Outlook

Usman Ahmed -

EUR/GBP is considered one of the most predictable currency pairs in Forex market. Yesterday the pair once again gave a daily closing below an important channel resistance as shown in the following chart.

Technical Levels

At the moment in Asian session, spot is around 0.8322 where it is likely to face an immediate resistance at 0.8341 (Channel Resistance), a daily close above this level may push the pair into short term bullish trend. Contrary to that the pair is about to find a very strong support at 0.8282 which is 50% fib level of last major move. If this support holds off it will be end of ongoing bearish trend and the pair may start journey towards 0.8407 and then 0.8505.

Daily Fundamentals

In fundamental basket, we have a few important economic reports due today relating to Britain and European Union that will affect EUR/GBP, these reports include:

  • German Retail Sales (YoY) Oct: Previous 0.2%, Forecast 1.3%
  • UK Nationwide Housing Prices (YoY) Nov: Previous 5.8%, Forecast 6%
  • Italy Unemployment report (Oct): Previous 12.5%, Forecast 12.5%
  • UK Mortgage Approvals (Oct): Previous 66.735K Forecast 68.500K
  • EU Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Oct): Previous £2.1B, Forecast £1.4B 
  • EU Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Nov): Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.8%
  • EU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov): Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.7%
  • EU Unemployment Rate (Oct): Previous 12.2%, Forecast 12.2%

Governor of the Bank of England Sir Mervyn King, the new Governor of the BoE Mark Carney spoke yesterday and once again the Pound actually rose following his comments. Those who have followed Sterling over the past few months will be well aware that King had a knack of causing Sterling weakness whenever he spoke however things appear to have now changed and Bank of England press conferences with Carney speaking do seem to result in Sterling strength. Today again we will be having a thin US session due to Black Friday holiday. Good Luck All.