EUR/USD Weekly Outlook for 25/11/2013 to 29/11/2013

Usman Ahmed -

After finding support at 1.3400 last week, EUR/USD pulled back sharply to close the weekend at 1.3550. In order to print fresh highs above 1.3831, the shared currency needs to give weekly closing above 1.3620. Here are some key support & resistance levels for the pair this week.

  • First Resistance: 1.3561 (50% Fibo level of recent move from 1.3831 to 1.3294)
  • Second Resistance: 1.3570-1.3575 Region (76.4% fibo level of last major move from 1.2753 to 1.3831 + trendline resistance on daily chart)
  • Third Resistance: 1.3622 (61.8% fibo level of 1.2753/1.3831)
  • First support: 1.3497 (38.2% fibo level of 1.3831/1.3294)
  • Second Support: 1.3416 (23.6% fibo level of 1.3831/1.3294 + 61.8% fibo level of 1.2753/3831 + Channel Support)
  • Third Support: 1.3294 (50% fibo level + 100% fibo level)

Any break below 1.3294 will trigger further losses towards 1.3200 and 1.3100 regions. At the time of writing, the spot is hovering around 1.3515 region. There is no divergence on MACD which means the ongoing bearish trend is likely to last during next few sessions. Shared currency may also find medium level support around 1.3477 region where 55 days Simple Moving Average is currently sitting in.

If we talk about fundamentals, we have following major European reports and events due this week.

  • GFK German consumer climate.
  • Spanish GDP.
  • German CPI data.
  • German employment data.
  • Euro zone’s Business climate and consumer confidence.
  • German retail sales figures.
  • Euro zone CPI data.
  • Euro zone employment data.

On the first day of week, in London session, the single currency is trading broadly lower due to bullish greenback after recent Iran deal; however, dollar may come under selling pressure as we proceed amid speculations on the timing of expected tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Similarly, speculations about ECB negative deposit rate may also engulf the shared currency this week.