Fed vs ECB vs BOJ — Key Considerations for H2 2026

At the start of 2026, markets expected Fed cuts, BOJ hikes, and an ECB pause.

But rising inflation, higher energy prices, resilient US growth, and shifting central bank rhetoric are forcing traders to rethink the entire macro outlook for H2 2026.

📈 Fed rate hike expectations are rising again
🇪🇺 The ECB is turning more hawkish amid energy-driven inflation risks
🇯🇵 The BOJ remains an important factor to monitor for FX markets and carry trades

Policy divergence between major central banks could become a closely watched factor for FX markets in the second half of the year.

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