Analysis: EUR/USD Close to Year’s Low after ECB Decision


As predicted by analysts, the European Central Bank did not change the interest rate yesterday, keeping it at = 4.50%. This morning the EUR/USD rate is near the psychological level of 1.0700, which approximately corresponds to the 2024 low.

The key driver of the euro's decline is the prospect that the ECB will take the path of easing monetary policy earlier than the Fed:
→ ECB President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that the decision “depends on the data, not on the Fed.”
→ As reported by Reuters, Max Stainton, senior global macro strategist at Fidelity International, believes that “the ECB will be the first central bank to start cutting rates this year.”

Technical analysis shows that:
→ the EUR/USD rate shows downward dynamics in 2024 (shown by the red channel);
→ the price is close to the lower border of the channel, but the downward impulse from top C (-1.6% since April 9) is holding back the level of 1.0700;

If we apply the Fibonacci proportions, then it is acceptable to assume that:
→ the upward movement B→C is an intermediate recovery after the downward impulse A→B (recovery completed at the level of 0.382);
→ the bears' target may be the Fibo level of 1.618, which corresponds to the rate of 1.05678 euros per dollar.

This goal can hardly be considered achievable in the near future, given that:
→ the market is oversold, as evidenced by RSI;
→ on the path of the bears there is support at 1.0700 and the lower border of the channel.

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