Statistically, September has a poor reputation for the cryptocurrency market, whereas October and November are the most favourable months, during which Bitcoin’s price has traditionally risen, as history shows. October has even earned the nickname “Uptober” within the crypto community.

The drop in BTC/USD at the end of September 2025 and the steady growth this week underline this established “tradition.”

Why is Bitcoin rising?

Fundamentally, demand for Bitcoin is strengthening:
→ due to growing uncertainty linked to the US government shutdown and increased appeal of safe-haven assets, as evidenced by capital inflows into Bitcoin‑related ETFs;
→ thanks to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut amid signs of a slowdown in the labour market.

At the same time:
→ JP Morgan analysts forecast that Bitcoin could rise to $165,000 by year‑end;
→ Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson suggested that by mid‑2026 BTC could reach $250,000, pointing to geopolitical shocks as a potential catalyst for growth.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

Analysing the drop in Bitcoin’s price on 22 September, we updated the long‑term ascending channel and suggested that:
→ bulls are retreating towards its lower boundary (on today’s Bitcoin chart, the channel is constructed using the regression method);
→ BTC/USD may consolidate within a broad zone forming an S–R triangle.

Indeed, between 25 and 28 September the lower boundary acted as support. Furthermore, note the price behaviour below the $110,000 level — there appeared to be few willing to sell the coin below this psychological threshold, creating initial momentum for a rally (highlighted by the black arrow). However, fluctuations within the S–R zone were not sustained.

Along the way, BTC/USD broke through:
→ the upper boundary of the red descending channel around $115,000 (which could act as support in the future). This marks a breakout of a corrective “bull flag” pattern and an attempt to resume the long‑term upward trend;
→ the psychological $120,000 level, reaching today a one‑and‑a‑half‑month high.

From a bearish perspective, selling pressure intensified around the $122,000 level, pushing the price down twice this summer (as shown by the red arrows). It is possible we could see a similar reversal for a third time. However, if October and November confirm their bullish reputation for the cryptocurrency market in 2025, this could drive Bitcoin’s price to the upper boundary of the channel, validating analysts’ positive forecasts.

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