Analysing the oil price on 19th June, we wrote that:

→ Amidst increasing demand for oil during the holiday season, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that by the end of summer, the Brent price could rise to $86 per barrel with an upper limit around $90.

→ The price could reach the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle that originated in 2022-2023 – technically, this is a significant resistance level.

As the Brent crude oil price chart (XBR/USD) shows, the price has reached the upper boundary of the triangle since then. How will events unfold from here?

Technical analysis of the Brent crude oil price chart indicates that:

→ The price increase in June has formed an ascending channel (shown in blue);

→ The resistance effect of the upper boundary of the large triangle has led to the A→B movement. The price quickly reached the median line of the blue channel, confirming seller activity above $87 per barrel.

The price decline at the end of last week was influenced not only by technical factors but also by fundamental ones – as Reuters reports, oil prices are falling amidst renewed ceasefire talks and a hostage release deal in the Gaza Strip.

It is possible that the Brent crude oil price could drop to the lower boundary of the blue channel, from where bulls may attempt to resume the upward movement. The following fundamental factors have the potential to support the bulls:

→ The impact of Hurricane Beryl on production and operations in the US. Major ports in Texas have shut down operations and vessel movements as Beryl continues to strengthen approaching the coast near Houston.

→ Breakdown of negotiations and the threat of escalation in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors.

→ Continuation of the holiday season.

Note that the lower boundary of the blue channel is reinforced by the $84 support level. Considering the upper boundary of the triangle, traders have reasons to believe that in July, a consolidation pattern could form on the XBR/USD chart between the $84-$87 levels.

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