Today at 15:15 GMT+3, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference at 15:45 GMT+3. According to Forex Factory, the main refinancing rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.15% after seven consecutive cuts.

In anticipation of these events, the EUR/USD exchange rate has risen above the 1.1770 level for the first time since 7 July. Bullish sentiment is also being supported by expectations of a potential trade agreement between the United States and the European Union. According to Reuters, both sides are reportedly moving towards a deal that may include a 15% base tariff on EU goods entering the US, with certain exemptions.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has shown bullish momentum since June, resulting in the formation of an ascending channel (marked in blue).

Within this channel, the price has rebounded from the lower boundary (highlighted in purple), although the midline of the blue channel appears to be acting as resistance (as indicated by the arrow), slowing further upward movement.

It is reasonable to assume that EUR/USD may attempt to stabilise around the midline—where demand and supply typically reach equilibrium. However, today’s market is unlikely to remain calm. In addition to the ECB’s statements, volatility could be heightened by news surrounding Donald Trump’s unexpected visit to the Federal Reserve.

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