On 19 March, we noted that gold had surpassed $3,000 per ounce for the first time ever and suggested this key psychological level might be tested.

As illustrated on the XAU/USD chart, the price briefly dipped below $3,000 before rebounding swiftly. Based on the Smart Money Concept methodology, this could have been a liquidity sweep triggered by stop-loss orders positioned below the psychological threshold. Regardless, the test took place (as shown by the arrow), and the bullish momentum continued. Gold has now set a fresh record high at around $3,080, with the potential for further gains today.

Why Is Gold Climbing?

➝ Market uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs
➝ Growing expectations of interest rate cuts

Gold has long been considered a safe-haven asset during economic and political instability and tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,300.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook

➝ Examining the broader trend, gold’s price continues to move within an ascending channel (marked in blue), which has remained intact since early 2025.
➝ An alternative perspective suggests a second, shallower rising channel (marked in purple), where gold is currently testing the upper boundary. This signals the possibility of a pullback, though the $3,056 level—previously a resistance point—may now serve as support, potentially setting the stage for a climb towards the $3,100 mark.

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