Just six days ago, we highlighted the historic breakthrough of the $3,200 level for the first time. Now, as the XAU/USD chart shows today, the price of an ounce of gold on global exchanges is fluctuating above $3,300.

Bullish sentiment is being driven by a weakening US dollar and rising trade tensions between the United States and China, which are boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. In response to these developments, Goldman Sachs analysts have raised their year-end 2025 forecast to $3,700.

However, technical analysis is beginning to flash some bearish signals.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

Using the latest data, we have drawn an ascending channel on the hourly chart that more accurately reflects price action since 8 April. Initially, the price moved within a narrow range, but after breaking the S-line, it found support (indicated by an arrow) at the lower boundary of the channel.

At present, there are signs of fading upward momentum in the gold market, as the price:

→ is failing to reach the median line (marked with a symbol);
→ is falling below the lower boundary of the channel.

After a rally of over 26% since the beginning of the year, the market may now be heavily overbought, and a correction could help “let off steam”. In this case, a test of the $3,250 level cannot be ruled out.

Long-Term Gold Price Forecasts → see the article: Analytical Gold Price Predictions for 2025 and Beyond.

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