Earnings season is gaining momentum. Today, after the close of the main trading session, Netflix (NFLX) is set to release its quarterly financial results.

Analysts are optimistic, forecasting earnings per share (EPS) of $7.08, up from $4.88 a year earlier, and revenue growth to $11.1 billion.

The upbeat sentiment is driven by:
→ the fact that Netflix’s business model is relatively resilient to tariff-related pressures;
→ the company’s success in curbing password sharing and promoting a more affordable ad-supported subscription tier.

Netflix has reported revenue growth for six consecutive quarters, outperforming competitors such as Disney, Amazon, and Apple. Its market share has climbed to 8.3%, with YouTube remaining its only serious rival—YouTube's share increased from 9.9% a year ago to 12.8% in June, according to Nielsen. If current trends hold, this reporting quarter could mark another strong performance for Netflix.

However, is the outlook truly that bullish?

Technical analysis of NFLX stock chart

The NFLX stock price is currently moving within an ascending channel (marked in blue), and it is now testing the lower boundary of this formation. Of concern is the recent pronounced bearish movement (B), which has dragged the stock from the channel’s upper boundary to its lower edge—erasing the bullish momentum (A) that followed the breakout above the $1,250 resistance level.

What’s next?
→ On the one hand, bulls may attempt to resume the upward trend within the channel.
→ On the other hand, bears could build on their recent momentum (highlighted in red) and break the ascending trend that has been in place since May.

It appears the fate of the current uptrend hinges on the market’s reaction to today’s earnings release.

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