Market Analysis: What to Expect from the Upcoming Reporting Season

This week, the reporting season of US companies for the Q2 will begin. Traditionally, the first to report on the results of their activities are large banks:

→ July 14: JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo
→ July 18: BofA and Morgan Stanley
→ July 19: Goldman Sachs

FT analysts suggest that banks will show a large increase in loan losses due to rising interest rates. Disappointing figures in the reports may give rise to talk about a recession again.

Incidentally, Treasury Secretary Yellen said in an interview with CBS's Face the Nation on Sunday that she doesn't completely rule out the risk of a recession. And analysts at Bloomberg Economics believe that the baseline scenario for a US recession will begin towards the end of 2023.

It seems that the market is already winning back fears about reports in the banking sector, as the dynamics of the XLF (fund based on shares of banks) this month noticeably lags behind the broad S&P 500 index, as the chart shows. So far, the price of the S&P 500 is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), but the reporting season may change the mood.