On 31 October, our analysis of Microsoft (MSFT) stock highlighted:
→ The price is forming a long-term upward channel, illustrated in blue.
→ The channel’s lower boundary serves as a significant support level.

On Friday, MSFT stock climbed to $445, its highest level since mid-July, buoyed by news that OpenAI may grant Microsoft access to key AI-related technologies.
Will the Price Continue to Rise?

There are reasons to suspect that the bullish momentum may not sustain.

Technical analysis of MSFT’s chart today suggests:
→ The price is near the median of the long-term channel, and this median could act as resistance. This is hinted at by the long upper shadows on Thursday and Friday’s candles.
→ The emerging bullish breakout above the September high around $441 might prove to be a false breakout, similar to the false bearish breakout of early October support near $408 (highlighted with arrows).

Additionally, Microsoft’s stock has underperformed compared to market indices, which are at historic highs. This could mean the price may retrace to $430 or lower, aligning more closely with average autumn levels.

Analysts, however, remain optimistic about MSFT’s prospects. According to TipRanks:
→ 26 out of 29 analysts recommend buying MSFT stock.
→ The average 12-month price target for MSFT is $497.

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