As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices are trading close to the March peak, which is the highest level since December 2022.

According to Trading Economics, the rise in gas prices has been driven by several factors:

→ Despite short-term warming in the US, weather models point to colder conditions ahead.

→ LNG exports remain elevated, as European buyers continue seeking alternatives to Russian gas. In November, average shipments across the eight major US terminals reached 17.8 billion cubic feet per day, exceeding the previous record of 16.7 billion in October.

→ The International Energy Agency expects global demand for oil and gas to continue rising until 2050, reflecting uncertainties surrounding the pace of the energy transition.

At the same time, chart analysis suggests that the upside potential may be limited.

Technical Analysis of XNG/USD

Price action is approaching a major resistance area, formed by:

→ the upper boundary of the channel, widened after the bullish breakout in late October;
→ the psychological level of $5.000 per MMBtu;
→ the previously mentioned March high.

Meanwhile, the more than 50% rally since early autumn has been significant, and long-position holders may be tempted to take profits. Therefore, if the price attempts to break above these resistance levels, it may result in a false bullish breakout (a buyer’s trap) followed by a pullback.

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