Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Fall to a Year-to-Date Low

As the Nvidia (NVDA) share price chart shows, the stock fell below $177 during yesterday’s session, marking its lowest level since the start of 2026.

Negative market sentiment is largely driven by uncertainty surrounding supplies to China. According to the Financial Times, Nvidia’s sales of H200 chips to China are still awaiting final approval from US authorities.

Yesterday’s statement from AMD, noting that the scale of its own shipments to China remains uncertain, reinforced these concerns and added further pressure to Nvidia shares. Previously, NVDA had been supported by expectations that deliveries of H200 chips to Chinese partners would begin in early 2026.

In addition, some media reports suggest that the stock is facing extra pressure from news of delayed investment in OpenAI, which is reportedly exploring alternative suppliers.

Technical Analysis of the Nvidia (NVDA) Chart

On 23 December, when analysing NVDA price action, we:

→ reaffirmed the long-term ascending channel, which remains intact;
→ suggested that bulls might attempt to break out of the corrective pattern (shown in red) in order to reach the channel median.

As expected (indicated by the black arrow), the price reached this target. However, January’s price behaviour offers little evidence that the uptrend has resumed with renewed strength.

Moreover, the red arrows highlight several bearish signals:

→ the median acted as clear resistance;
→ the 30 January peak (the highest level since the start of the year) formed with a long upper shadow, resulting in a false break of the previous high — a classic “bull trap”.

While bearish momentum appears to be in control, it is worth noting that:

→ the break below the 20 January low could also prove to be false;
→ the lower boundary of the channel, which has acted as key support for many months, is nearby.

Taking all of this into account, it is reasonable to assume that NVDA may find a period of consolidation in the lower quarter of the channel. A potential catalyst for the next major move could be the company’s earnings release scheduled for 25 February.

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