Oracle is due to publish its quarterly results today after the close of the main trading session. Analysts are expecting solid year-on-year growth compared with the same period last year:

→ Revenue: forecast to rise by around 15% to $16.15–16.2 billion.
→ Earnings per share (EPS): expected at $1.63–1.65, up roughly 11%.

At the same time, the market’s focus will be on the company’s plans in two key areas:

→ Order backlog growth: investors are looking for confirmation that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. Previously, orders exceeded $500 billion.
→ Debt and capital expenditure (capex): Oracle is spending aggressively on data centres (capex could rise to as much as $25 billion per year) while taking on additional debt. This has raised concerns that costs may be increasing faster than the actual profits generated from AI.

Today’s results are particularly important in light of the market reaction to the previous earnings release.

On 15 September, we noted that ORCL shares surged with a bullish gap above the psychological $300 level. Since then, however, the share price has fallen by more than 30%. One possible explanation is that “smart money” used the spike in speculative demand to lock in profits on long positions — a view supported by exceptionally high trading volumes. Once demand faded, the price moved lower within a descending channel.

Within the broader long-term channel (shown in orange), the price briefly broke below the lower boundary but failed to follow through. Meanwhile, the narrowing candle body on 21 November (marked by the arrow), combined with a spike in volume, may suggest that institutional investors were absorbing selling pressure, potentially signalling expectations of higher prices ahead.

Positive signs include:
→ a false bearish break below the psychological $200 level;
→ a break of the red downward trajectory;
→ a rise in ORCL shares in pre-market trading today.

If Oracle’s actual results and management’s outlook impress investors, the ORCL share price could move back into the orange ascending channel.

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