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On 27 November, we suggested that silver was preparing to challenge its all-time high. Since then (marked with the orange arrow), XAG/USD has risen by roughly 18%, breaking above the psychological $60-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.
The rally has been driven by strong retail inflows into silver ETFs, alongside expectations of a structural supply deficit by 2026 due to robust industrial demand—particularly from solar energy, electric vehicles, and data-centre infrastructure.
The weakening of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday also helped lift dollar-denominated silver to a new historic peak near $64.
Technical Analysis of XAG/USD
A review of the XAG/USD chart shows that the price has been moving within a rising channel that encapsulates the uptrend beginning in early September.
Within this structure:
→ the channel median acted as a springboard for price growth on 4 December;
→ the line dividing the upper half of the channel into quarters switched from resistance (earlier in the month) to support on 10 December;
→ silver is now trading near the channel’s upper boundary, which may behave as significant resistance (as it did in mid-October).
Given these factors, the market may now be heavily overheated, leaving it vulnerable to a correction. Should this scenario begin to unfold, we could see a bearish break of the steep upward trajectory that has lifted silver by around 30% from the 21 November low.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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