With the holiday season underway, this week may be less volatile than the previous one, which was dominated by central bank decisions. This presents an opportunity to analyse the broader trends and outlook for gold prices in 2025.

The XAU/USD chart reveals that gold prices have been moving within an ascending channel, gaining approximately 27% since the start of 2024.

The short-term outlook appears bearish due to the following factors:

• Gold prices fell after last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut, signalling increased selling pressure.
• The $2,720 level remains a key resistance, having reversed the price downward in November and December.
• While a recent upward reversal (indicated by an arrow) shows renewed buying interest near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, persistent selling pressure could still lead to a bearish trend. This might result in a breakdown below the blue channel's lower boundary and the formation of a descending channel (outlined in red).

Despite short-term challenges, analysts remain optimistic about gold's prospects for 2025. Donald Trump's return to the White House may significantly change global trade, Western alliances, and geopolitical dynamics. These uncertainties may increase demand for gold as a so-called safe-haven asset.

A BullionVault survey of around 1,450 participants predicts that gold prices could reach $3,070 by the end of 2025, driven by concerns over geopolitics and mounting national debt.

In this context, even if the lower boundary of the blue channel is breached, bullish momentum could resume, possibly from one of the grey support levels.

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