American Currency Adjusts Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Speech

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A rather weak employment report, published late last week, contributed to the weakening of the American dollar. According to the published data:

  • The unemployment rate in June increased to 4.1% (experts’ forecast: 4.0%);
  • The actual number of new jobs was slightly higher than analysts predicted (206K vs 191K).

According to Bloomberg Economics experts, the US labour market is starting to slow down significantly, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the September meeting. It is quite possible that more clues about the Fed’s future monetary policy will be provided to market participants by the end of the week, as important press conferences and macroeconomic data releases are expected in the upcoming trading sessions.

USD/JPY

Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair indicates the possibility of a continued downward correction, as a "bearish engulfing" pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. The pattern can be considered partially worked out, as the price has decreased by more than 100 pips and has almost tested the significant support at 160.00 since it formed on the chart.

The price behaviour in the 160.30-159.80 range will demonstrate the sellers' strength. If the price consolidates below this range, the downward movement may resume with renewed vigour. Conversely, if the pair rises above 162.00, it could lead to the start of a new upward impulse.

The following events could impact the pair's price:

  • Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell;
  • Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

EUR/USD

Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair allows for the consideration of a continued price increase, provided that buyers hold the 1.0800-1.0780 range as support. If the pair consolidates below 1.0780, a retest of 1.0700-1.0660 is possible.

Important events for the EUR/USD rate:

  • Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by German Federal Bank representative Sabine Mauderer;
  • Tomorrow at 11:00 (GMT +3): Publication of Italy’s industrial production volume for May.