AUD/USD and AUD/CAD Hit New Highs Amid RBA Tightening

The Australian dollar continues to strengthen, pushing to fresh 2021–2022 highs, supported by a combination of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tight monetary stance and a weaker US dollar. This week’s rate hike by the RBA has been a key driver, widening yield differentials and boosting demand for the Australian currency, which has reinforced the ongoing uptrend. Additional pressure on the US dollar came from weak labour data, including the ADP report, increasing expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy.

The current market structure suggests that both AUD/USD and AUD/CAD have broken out of recent consolidation ranges and are now advancing towards multi-year highs. Trading at these levels creates a decision zone where liquidity is being reallocated, with the market assessing whether prices can hold above extremes or fall back into prior ranges.

In the near term, the key event for markets will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, while other macro releases are likely to play a secondary role. The NFP reaction could significantly influence expectations for Fed policy and set the direction for the US dollar.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is trading near yearly highs, maintaining bullish momentum after breaking out of its range. Dollar weakness combined with RBA policy support continues to favour further gains, with the current area acting as a key test for breakout confirmation.

From a technical perspective, continuation of the uptrend depends on the 0.7230 level holding as support. However, in the absence of fresh catalysts ahead of key data releases, a pullback towards 0.7130–0.7160 remains possible.

Key Events For AUD/USD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims
• today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US construction spending
• today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator

AUD/CAD

AUD/CAD reached a new yearly high yesterday at 0.9870 and still shows potential for a move towards 2021 extremes near 0.9990. If the upper boundary of the recent range turns into support, the bullish momentum could strengthen further.

At the same time, a slowdown at current levels could lead to a return back into the broken range, creating a false breakout scenario and opening the door for a corrective move.

Key Events For AUD/CAD:

• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Canada leading economic indicators
• today at 23:30 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve balance sheet
• tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada employment change

Overall, both currency pairs remain in a strong upward phase supported by fundamental drivers. The current resistance zone is a key decision area: a sustained breakout would open the way for further gains, while weak follow-through or stronger US data could trigger a return into prior ranges and a corrective pullback. Upcoming macroeconomic releases are likely to be the decisive catalyst for the next market move.

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