Commodity Currencies Adjust Following US Inflation Data

The release of US inflation data has led to a downward pullback for the USD in pairs such as USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and AUD/USD. Currently, these pairs are trading near key levels, with rebounds from these points potentially driving increased volatility and shifts in medium-term trends.

AUD/USD

This week, the AUD/USD pair hit new yearly lows near 0.6350. The price stopped just short of 0.6320 before correcting to 0.6400. If the upward correction continues, the pair may test resistance at 0.6470–0.6450. Price action around these levels could provide further direction for the pair. A break and hold above 0.6500 may pave the way for gains toward 0.6620–0.6570. Conversely, a rebound from 0.6470–0.6450 could trigger a new bearish impulse, possibly leading to fresh lows.

Key events likely to influence AUD/USD pricing:
→ Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data release.
→ Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI) publication.
→ Tomorrow at 05:00 (GMT+3): Release of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) for Australia in December.

USD/CAD

Last week, USD/CAD buyers not only reached new yearly highs but also tested significant resistance near 1.4200. Yesterday’s US inflation data prompted a retreat from 1.4200, resulting in daily losses of about 80 pips. Nevertheless, as long as the pair trades above 1.4100–1.4000, the chances of resuming the upward trend remain high.

In the coming sessions, a retest of 1.4120–1.4100 is possible. Should these levels hold as support, a new bullish impulse toward 1.4350–1.4260 may follow. A deeper downward correction could occur if the pair breaks and holds below 1.4000–1.3960.

Key news likely to influence USD/CAD movement:
→ Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): October Building Permits data from Canada.
→ Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Manufacturing Sales (m/m) report.

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