Commodity Currencies in Stable Ranges: Should We Expect a Breakout?

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The currency pairs AUD/USD and USD/CAD, unlike the pairs with the Euro, Yen, and Sterling, continue to demonstrate long-term stability. These pairs have been trading in narrow price corridors for several months. Given the weakening of the dollar in many directions, there is a high likelihood of increased volatility and a breakout from the flat channels in commodity currencies.

USD/CAD

Last week, the USD/CAD pair sharply rebounded from the significant support at 1.3600, forming a bullish "hammer" pattern. Technical analysis of the pair suggests a potential resumption of the upward movement if the buyers manage to consolidate above 1.3700. It is worth noting that the price is testing this level for the second time this week. The inability of dollar bulls to overcome this resistance could push the price back to 1.3600-1.3580.

The upcoming trading sessions will be packed with important events and macroeconomic indicators:

  • Today at 15:30 (GMT +3) the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (USA);
  • Today at 15:30 (GMT +3) the initial jobless claims in the USA;
  • Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT +3) the core retail sales index in Canada.

AUD/USD

Following the release of inflation data in the USA, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to move above the significant range of 0.6700-0.6680. Buyers of the Australian Dollars have not yet managed to develop a full-fledged upward trend, but if the 0.6700 level remains as support, the price could continue its upward movement towards 0.6850-0.6800. If the price consolidates below 0.6680, it could return to the range of 0.6630-0.6580.

The volatility of AUD/USD could be influenced by speeches from Federal Reserve representatives in the upcoming trading sessions:

  • Today at 20:45 (GMT +3) a speech by the Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan;
  • Tomorrow at 19:45 (GMT +3) a speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Raphael Bostic.