Dollar Continues Aggressive Rise Ahead of U.S. Elections

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The U.S. dollar is reaching new highs, driven by rising bets on Trump’s potential success in the upcoming election, which has renewed its appeal as a safe-haven currency. Over the past week:

  • The USD/CAD pair strengthened above 1.3900,
  • USD/JPY nearly tested the 154.00 level,
  • USD/CHF is showing signs of a “double bottom” pattern.

USD/JPY

The rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, coupled with positive sentiment surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections, has fueled a sharp rise in USD/JPY. Over the past two weeks, the pair has gained more than 500 points, reaching significant highs of 154.00–155.00 this year.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests potential for further growth if the price holds above 154.00, though a corrective pullback to the 152.30–151.00 range remains possible.

Key events likely to impact the pair in the upcoming sessions include:

  • Today at 15:15 (GMT+3:00): U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report,
  • Today at 15:30 (GMT+3:00): U.S. GDP data release,
  • Today at 17:00 (GMT+3:00): U.S. Pending Home Sales Index.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD pair is in its fifth consecutive week of strengthening, now trading near the 2022 highs of 1.3900–1.3970. Price action within this range will be crucial for setting the pair’s future trend. Should the pair break above 1.3970, it may accelerate the trend towards 1.4100–1.4300. Conversely, a rejection at these levels could trigger a downward correction towards 1.3700–1.3800.

Further signals on USD/CAD movement could emerge following these events:

  • Today at 17:30 (GMT+3:00): U.S. Crude Oil Inventories,
  • Today at 15:30 (GMT+3:00): Speech by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem,
  • Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3:00): Canadian GDP for August.