Dollar Declines Following Weak Macroeconomic Data

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The final trading week of November may prove to be the worst this month for the US dollar. Following the release of Chicago PMI data and the US Q3 GDP report, USD/JPY and USD/CAD have fallen to key support levels.

USD/JPY

A retest of the critical resistance level at 156.00 proved decisive for USD/JPY buyers. The rejection from this level confirmed the previously formed "bearish engulfing" pattern and led to losses exceeding 400 pips. Yesterday, the price fell below the 152.00–151.50 range, which had initiated the pair’s rally after Donald Trump's election victory. In upcoming trading sessions, this range may be retested, but now as resistance. If buyers fail to hold above 152.00, a further downtrend toward 150.00–149.00 is possible.

Key upcoming events that could shape USD/JPY’s trajectory include:

  • Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Dallas Fed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index (US)
  • Tomorrow at 02:50 (GMT +3): Japanese Industrial Production data
  • Tomorrow at 17:45 (GMT +3): Chicago PMI report (US)

USD/CAD

At the start of the week, USD/CAD buyers pushed the pair sharply higher, breaking recent highs at 1.4100. However, a subsequent rise to 1.4180 was followed by a correction to 1.4000, forming a bearish "harami" candlestick pattern.
Technical analysis suggests a potential for a full-fledged downward correction if the 1.4060–1.4020 range confirms its role as resistance.

Several significant macroeconomic reports due by the end of the week may influence USD/CAD’s direction:

  • Today at 16:00 (GMT +3): Canada’s Current Account Balance
  • Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT +3): Canada’s Q3 GDP report
  • Tomorrow at 19:00 (GMT +3): Canada’s September Budget Balance