EUR/USD and GBP/USD Advance on Reports of a US–Iran Agreement

European currencies are staging a solid recovery after a period of heightened demand for the US dollar, which had previously been supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reports that the United States and Iran have reached preliminary agreements regarding a potential ceasefire and the normalisation of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have significantly improved market sentiment and reduced investors’ appetite for safe-haven assets.

According to incoming reports, the two sides have moved closer to agreeing on the key terms of a potential deal that would include a cessation of hostilities and a gradual stabilisation of the regional situation. Although the final memorandum is not expected to be signed until 19 June in Geneva, the progress in negotiations itself has been viewed as a positive signal by market participants. Against this backdrop, demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset has eased somewhat, allowing both the euro and the pound to recover from their recent declines.

Additional support for European currencies may come from today’s macroeconomic releases. Investors will be closely monitoring the publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indices for Germany and the euro area. Any improvement in business confidence and economic sentiment could strengthen the euro’s position, particularly after a period of elevated uncertainty.

EUR/USD

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to recover after testing a key support zone. The pair has managed to hold above important levels and is now attempting to develop a bullish correction. Further price action will depend on whether buyers can establish a foothold above nearby resistance levels and confirm the formation of a more sustainable recovery.

A move and close above 1.1620 could open the way towards 1.1660–1.1690. Failure to secure gains above 1.1620 may result in a retest of the recent low near 1.1600.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): Germany ZEW Current Conditions Index;
• Today at 12:30 (GMT+3): German 5-year Bobl bond auction;
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Housing Starts.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is also showing positive momentum. Sterling is benefiting not only from improving global risk appetite but also from expectations that the UK economy will remain relatively resilient. At the same time, market participants continue to monitor signals from the Bank of England and the outlook for the central bank’s monetary policy.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD points to the possibility of a move towards 1.3460–1.3500 if the 1.3400 level turns into support. A decisive break below the 1.3400–1.3380 area could trigger another test of the 1.3300 level.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator;
• Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Consumer Price Index (CPI);
• Tomorrow at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK House Price Index.

The easing of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran has allowed European currencies to recover after recent pressure from the US dollar. However, the continuation of the upward moves in EUR/USD and GBP/USD will depend both on incoming economic data from Europe and the United States and on further progress in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. For now, market sentiment remains moderately positive, although fresh fundamental developments are likely to determine the next directional move.

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