EUR/USD and GBP/USD Return to Ranges Ahead of Key Data

European currencies have moved into a corrective phase following recent gains, while market participants focus on upcoming macroeconomic data from the UK, the eurozone and the United States. After a strong upward move, both currencies returned to their previous trading ranges, signalling a shift towards consolidation ahead of important economic releases. Additional pressure on the euro and pound is coming from partial profit-taking after the earlier weakening of the US dollar.

Investors will assess data on UK GDP, industrial production and business activity across European economies. These figures may influence expectations regarding future actions by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. At the same time, markets continue to monitor US statistics, including retail sales and jobless claims, which could affect expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has entered a corrective decline after recent gains and is once again trading within its previous range. Technical analysis suggests the pair may fall towards the lower boundary of the four-week range near 1.1650–1.1670, as a bearish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A break below these support levels could trigger a deeper downward correction. If the pair rebounds from 1.1650, a renewed test of 1.1760–1.1780 may follow.

Key Events For EUR/USD:

• today at 10:00 (GMT+3): Spain Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) in Germany
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US retail sales volume

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is also correcting after its previous rally and remains within a range-bound structure. A move below yesterday’s low at 1.3490 could lead to a decline towards the 1.3400–1.3440 area. The bearish correction scenario remains valid while the pair stays below 1.3550.

Key Events For GBP/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK GDP
• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK manufacturing production
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims

Market attention remains focused on UK economic data, including industrial production, construction output and investment activity. At the same time, the pair will continue to be influenced by US statistics and the dollar’s reaction to macroeconomic releases. If US data confirms signs of economic slowing, the dollar may come under renewed pressure, allowing GBP/USD to resume its upward movement. However, stronger US figures could intensify the current correction and keep the pair within its established range.

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