European currencies have shown a recovery in recent trading sessions after their recent decline, displaying early signs of a reversal. The US dollar is weakening amid expectations surrounding upcoming US macroeconomic data, while market participants are reassessing their short-term positions and allowing for a deeper corrective move in the greenback. At the same time, the risk of renewed demand for the dollar remains in place should geopolitical tensions escalate further, a factor that is already being partly priced in.

Additional support for the euro and the Swiss franc has come from a reduced demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Earlier, geopolitical tensions had boosted demand for the dollar; however, recent comments from Donald Trump regarding the possibility of new strikes on Iran in the coming weeks have once again increased uncertainty and may revive interest in the dollar as a defensive asset.

Investors are also focused on upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including labour market and trade data. These figures may reveal early signs of economic cooling, potentially adding pressure on the dollar. At the same time, a combination of strong data and rising geopolitical risks could restore solid demand for the US currency and limit the current correction. Additional attention will also be given to data from Europe and Switzerland, where inflation and business activity indicators may influence expectations regarding central bank policies and reinforce the ongoing recovery in European currencies if the figures prove supportive.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair posted a solid rebound from local lows at the start of the week. Technical analysis suggests the pair may attempt another move towards 1.1640, as a “bullish engulfing” pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. However, if buyers fail to hold the price above the 1.1500–1.1520 range, a renewed downward move cannot be ruled out.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:45 (GMT+3): France government budget balance
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US trade balance

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair is also showing a pullback from yearly highs and attempting to develop a corrective move. On the daily timeframe, an “evening star” pattern has formed, which may point to a decline towards the 0.7850–0.7900 area. A sustained move above 0.8000 would invalidate the bearish correction scenario.

Key events for USD/CHF:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator
• today at 19:45 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman

Overall, the market appears to be shifting from a one-sided strengthening of the US dollar towards a corrective phase. However, rising geopolitical uncertainty and upcoming macroeconomic releases continue to leave room for a renewed increase in demand for the US currency. Further direction will depend on incoming data and how investors respond to the evolving news backdrop.

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