Euro Balances at Strategic Levels: Focus on Macroeconomic Data

The euro is showing mixed dynamics: EUR/USD is consolidating near strategic levels, while EUR/CAD continues its upward movement, supported by Canadian dollar weakness and fluctuations in oil prices. This performance comes amid anticipation of key economic releases: in Europe, the market is focused on PMI and inflation figures, while in the US attention is on private sector employment reports and manufacturing indicators. The threat of a US government shutdown adds uncertainty, heightening investor caution. The direction of further movement will depend on the balance of signals on both sides of the Atlantic: stronger eurozone inflation and softer US data may support the euro, whereas weak European numbers combined with resilient figures from the US/Canada could trigger a deeper correction.

EUR/USD

Last week, EUR/USD found support near 1.1645 and managed to climb back above 1.1700. The bullish momentum observed over three consecutive days has now slowed somewhat. Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests potential growth towards 1.1780–1.1820, provided 1.1700 holds as support. Should euro sellers succeed in securing a move below 1.1700, the pair might once again test the recent low near 1.1645.

Key events that may influence EUR/USD pricing in the upcoming sessions include:

Today at 10:55 (GMT+3): Germany Manufacturing PMI
Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): Speech by Bundesbank representative Mauderer
Today at 12:00 (GMT+3): Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

EUR/CAD

After breaking above the 2018 highs near 1.6150, EUR/CAD buyers continue to drive the uptrend. In case of negative euro-related news, the pair might correct back towards the recent extremes around 1.6200–1.6250. The next key resistance levels might be found at 1.6380–1.6400.

Key events that may influence EUR/CAD pricing in the upcoming sessions include:

Today at 13:00 (GMT+3): OPEC meeting
Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canada Manufacturing PMI
Today at 16:30 (GMT+3): US Crude Oil Inventories