European Currencies Seek Stability Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

European currencies are showing mixed performance as they attempt to stabilise following their recent decline and the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. The minutes revealed growing concern over persistent inflationary pressures, with several policymakers supporting the possibility of an immediate interest rate increase, while the majority maintained a more cautious approach to further monetary tightening. Overall, the document highlighted ongoing divisions within the Fed over the future path of interest rates but maintained a broadly hawkish backdrop for the US dollar, as further rate hikes have not been ruled out should inflation remain elevated.

Fresh uncertainty has also emerged from renewed tensions in the Middle East. Following the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, investors have once again shifted their focus to the risk of a broader regional conflict and the potential disruption of energy supplies through key shipping routes. Rising geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for safe-haven assets while increasing concerns that higher energy prices could fuel another wave of inflation, further complicating the Federal Reserve's prospects for policy easing. Against this backdrop, European currencies are attempting to stabilise, although persistent uncertainty continues to limit the scope for a sustained recovery.

EUR/USD

Following its recent decline, EUR/USD has once again tested support around 1.1390 before attempting to stabilise. Buyers have so far managed to keep the pair above its June lows, although the broader technical picture remains fragile. Technical indicators suggest the pair could recover towards the 1.1450–1.1470 region, supported by several bullish reversal patterns on the daily chart. However, if the pair is rejected from that resistance area and fails to establish a foothold above it, downside pressure could return, exposing 1.1330–1.1350 as the next support zone.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today, 09:00 (GMT+3): Germany Trade Balance
• Today, 13:00 (GMT+3): Spain Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI)
• Today, 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues to outperform, extending its recovery after rebounding from the 1.3160–1.3200 support zone. Sterling has regained ground towards 1.3400, reflecting continued short-term buying interest. A sustained move above 1.3400 could pave the way for further gains towards 1.3460–1.3500. Conversely, a decisive break below 1.3320 would invalidate the current bullish outlook.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today, 13:00 (GMT+3): UK Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI)
• Today, 16:00 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member John Williams
• Today, 20:30 (GMT+3): Speech by Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan

Key Takeaways

European currencies are attempting to regain stability after their recent decline, but the technical outlook remains mixed. EUR/USD is holding above key support near 1.1390, although the risk of renewed downside persists. By contrast, GBP/USD continues to recover and is now testing significant resistance around 1.3400. The next directional move will largely depend on developments in the Middle East, further guidance from the Federal Reserve, and whether buyers can secure sustained breaks above key technical levels.

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