Franc and Euro Adjust in Anticipation of Key Events

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The end of the current trading week could bring quite a few surprises for market participants. Many important fundamental events are scheduled for the upcoming trading sessions:

  • Today at 11:00 (GMT +3:00) the press conference of the Swiss National Bank
  • Today at 12:15 (GMT +3:00) a speech by Elizabeth McCaul, a member of the Supervisory Board (ECB representative)
  • Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00) the publication of US GDP
  • Today at 16:20 (GMT +3:00) a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

Depending on the incoming data and comments from officials, the main currency pairs could either continue their current trends or correct towards recent impulses.

USD/CHF

According to the technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair, the price is in a sideways movement in the range of 0.8540–0.8400. The pair has been trading within this channel for about four weeks, and a breakout above the upper boundary of this range could lead to a renewed rise towards 0.8760–0.8640. Should the price decline, last year’s lows around 0.8360 could be revisited.

Today's decision from the Swiss National Bank and the subsequent press conference will be crucial for the pair. Experts predict a reduction in the base rate by 25 basis points, from 1.25% to 1.00%. Comments from SNB representatives regarding future monetary policy will also be of great importance to market participants.

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR/USD buyers managed to test key resistance at 1.1200. However, they failed to consolidate above it, and a rejection from 1.1220 led to the formation of a “dark cloud cover” pattern on the daily timeframe. If the price settles below 1.1100–1.1080, a resumption of the downward movement towards 1.1000–1.0960 is possible. If the daily candle closes above 1.1200, the highs of 2023 at 1.1280 could be retested.

Today's speeches by Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell will be crucial for the pair’s price formation. If central bank policies for the coming months diverge significantly, sharp volatility in EUR/USD could follow.