Major Currency Pairs Retreat Ahead of Fed Meeting

FXOpen -

Investors and market participants are eagerly awaiting today's Fed meeting, as experts predict the US regulator is likely to cut the base interest rate for the first time in four years. Inflation shows a steady decline, and the labour market is slowing down. In these conditions, the rate cut is already priced in, and the main focus for the market will be the accompanying comments from officials and the Fed's future plans:

  • if the rate is cut by only 0.25% today, followed by hawkish comments from Jerome Powell, the dollar could strengthen in certain directions;
  • if the rate is cut by 0.5% along with a shift in monetary policy, the US currency could sharply weaken.

GBP/USD

The technical analysis of the GBP/USD pair suggests a possible retest of the key support level at 1.3040-1.3000, as a "dark cloud cover" pattern has formed on the daily chart. If the price holds above 1.3220, the downward scenario will be broken, and the pair could retest the August high at 1.3270. Besides the Fed’s rate decision, the following events may impact the pair’s price movement:

  • today at 09:00 (GMT +3:00), the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released;
  • today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00), the US building permits data will be published.

EUR/USD

After testing the psychological support level of 1.1000, the EUR/USD pair recovered some losses and climbed back above 1.1100. If the buyers manage to hold the price above 1.1140, a retest of the recent high at 1.1200 is possible. In case of positive news for the dollar, the price may drop again to 1.1000. Important events for EUR/USD include:

  • today at 12:00 (GMT +3:00), the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released;
  • today at 15:00 (GMT +3:00), European Central Bank Governing Council member Elizabeth McCaul is scheduled to speak.