US Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls: Possible Scenarios

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In anticipation of the release of one of the most important reports, the NonFarm Payrolls, the US currency has suffered losses across almost all fronts. Earlier this week, the EUR/USD currency pair tested and settled above 1.0800, GBP/USD traded above 1.2700, and USD/CAD fell back to 1.3610.

Today, we might see either continued corrective pullbacks or a resumption of medium-term trends if the employment data deviates from expectations. So, what should we expect?

  • Experts forecast a decline in average earnings to 0.3% (if the figure comes in at last month's level or higher, it could strengthen the US currency).
  • The number of new jobs in June is expected to be 194K (if the figure is significantly higher or lower than the forecast, it could cause volatility in major currency pairs).

USD/CAD

Dollar buyers in the USD/CAD pair failed to overcome resistance at 1.3750. A rebound from this level led to the formation of a "bearish engulfing" pattern on the daily timeframe. According to the technical analysis of USD/CAD, the price has approached the lower boundary of the medium-term flat corridor at 1.3610. If the price consolidates below this level in the coming trading sessions, the downward movement could continue towards 1.3520-1.3480. A rebound from 1.3610 could lead to a retest of 1.3700-1.3660.

Read analytical USD/CAD price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.

EUR/USD

Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests the potential for continued growth towards 1.0900, as the price has exited the medium-term flat corridor of 1.0760-1.0650. A break in the upward impulse is possible if the price returns to the specified corridor and consolidates below 1.0760. Besides the publication of US employment data, the following events are worth noting today:

  • At 10:00 (GMT +3:00) a speech by the President of the German Bundesbank, Nagel.
  • At 12:00 (GMT +3:00) the release of retail sales volumes in the Eurozone for May.