USD/CHF Heading Towards the Fresh 12-Month High

Usman Ahmed -

The US dollar upholds the bullish momentum against the Swiss Franc on Monday, crossing the October high and heading towards the 2013 highs ahead of the US ISM manufacturing index

Technical Analysis

As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 0.9661. Opened at 0.9645, the pair is enjoying the upward ride to print a new high for the ongoing year. The price may face a hurdle around 0.9751, the high of July 2013 crossing which will open the way towards the next milestone around 0.9838, the high of 2013.

On the downside, the pair will find a support around 0.9432, the confluence of trend line,  38.2% Fib level and 50-Day SMA, as demonstrated in the above chart. Another support can also be seen around 0.9354, the 50% Fib level and the swing low of October.

The overall bias remains bullish because of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. The bullish momentum is expected to prevail in the near future as far as the support area 0.9532-0.9354 remains intact.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

The US Manufacturing Index is scheduled to be released by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) today in the US session. The manufacturing index is projected to be 56.2 points for this October as compared to 56.6 points for the month before, as per the average forecast of different analysts. Generally speaking, a high figure is considered bullish for the US dollar, thus a better than expected figure will further support the upside rally in USD/CHF.

SVME Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Swiss manufacturing index is also due to be released today. As per median projection of different analysts, the manufacturing index for this October is expected to increase to 51.3 points as compared to 50.4 points for the month before. Generally speaking, a high reading is considered bearish for the USD/CHF thus a better than expected outcome may spur selling pressure in the price of the pair.

Trading Strategy

Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, selling the pair around  the current levels could be a good option in short term if the pair leaves a bearish pin bar or bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart.