Brent: The Downtrend Begins to Crack

Fundamental backdrop

In April 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent prices to their highest levels per barrel since 2022. However, diplomatic developments reversed the market’s direction: by the end of May, prices had fallen by around 19% — the worst monthly performance since the pandemic — amid ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran. Additional pressure came from OPEC+’s decision to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in June.

The market remains cautious. Even if an agreement is reached, analysts continue to point to persistent risks for tanker traffic through the strait. US labour market data due on 5 June may also influence expectations regarding future energy demand.

Technical picture

On the four-hour chart of Brent Crude Oil, a short-term downtrend remains in place, having developed following the market reversal on 30 April and originating from the 114.5 area. In late May, the price tested the 93 region, which coincided with the green support level, before staging a recovery. The market is now attempting to break above the descending trendline and is testing the upper boundary of the current profile at 99.600 as support.

The profile spans the range between 95.400 and 99.600. The point of control (POC) is located in the 96.950–97.150 area — the price zone that attracted the highest concentration of trading activity during the reversal phase. The 101.800 area may act as the nearest resistance level; if prices remain above the profile, this level could become a key focus for market participants. Should the market fall back below 99.600, the POC may provide support for another attempt to move higher.

The RSI and its moving averages currently stand at 57, 55 and 49. The indicator remains above both moving averages, while their positive slope suggests strengthening short-term bullish momentum.

Key takeaways

The main factor likely to determine Brent’s direction in the coming weeks remains the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Any indication of delays or a breakdown in talks could reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium into prices. From a technical perspective, the market is approaching a decision point: the outcome of the current attempt to break the descending trendline may determine the next short-term direction of Brent prices.

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