GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Await Key Bank of England Decision

The pound strengthened following the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged. However, the Fed did not provide the market with clear signals of an imminent shift towards rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach to future monetary policy. Despite the Fed’s cautious tone, the dollar failed to gain fresh momentum, allowing the British currency to partially recover its recent losses.

Market attention is now almost entirely focused on the Bank of England meeting, as its decision is expected to be the main driver for sterling through the end of the week. Investors also do not expect a change in interest rates, but the key factors will be the Monetary Policy Committee’s vote split, the accompanying statement and comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Any signals regarding the timing of potential monetary policy easing could trigger notable volatility in the pound.

For the euro, today will also bring a number of important macroeconomic releases. Markets will focus on preliminary inflation and GDP data from Germany, as well as GDP and inflation figures from Spain. These reports will help investors assess the resilience of the eurozone economy and adjust expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s future actions. Stronger data could support the euro, while weaker figures may reinforce expectations of further ECB policy easing.

GBP/USD

Following yesterday’s Fed meeting, GBP/USD moved towards the 1.3400 area. A rebound from the 1.3270 support level and a sharp daily rally allowed buyers to form a bullish engulfing pattern. Technical analysis of GBP/USD points to the possibility of further gains towards 1.3440–1.3480 if the 1.3270–1.3300 range becomes established as support. A decisive move below yesterday’s low could trigger a renewed decline towards 1.3180–1.3220.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): Bank of England interest rate decision;
• Today at 14:30 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims.

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP is showing signs of recovery after forming a bullish harami pattern on the daily timeframe. If market participants are disappointed by today’s Bank of England decision, the pair could extend its advance towards 0.8600–0.8620. The bullish scenario would be invalidated after a decisive break below the 0.8540–0.8560 support area.

Key events for EUR/GBP:

• Today at 08:30 (GMT+3): France GDP;
• Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany GDP;
• Today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Overall, the near-term direction of sterling will depend primarily on the Bank of England’s decision, the Monetary Policy Committee’s vote split and Andrew Bailey’s comments on the future outlook for interest rates. For the euro, inflation and GDP releases from the eurozone’s largest economies will remain important, as they could influence expectations for the European Central Bank’s next policy steps. With the market impact of the Fed meeting now fading, European economic data and signals from the Bank of England could become the main drivers of GBP/USD and EUR/GBP through the end of the week.

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