XRP/USD: Consolidation Amid Regulatory Expectations

Fundamental Background

The key event for XRP in May remains the fate of the CLARITY Act, which is expected to establish XRP’s status as a digital commodity at the federal level. According to CoinMarketCap, the Senate Banking Committee has scheduled consideration of the bill for 14 May 2026. According to estimates by 24/7 Wall St., if the vote does not take place before the start of the May recess on 21 May, consideration of the bill could be delayed. Against this backdrop, institutional interest remains steady: according to SoSoValue, net inflows into spot XRP ETFs totalled $34.21 million during the first ten days of May.

Technical Picture

Since July 2025, XRP has formed a descending channel from the peak near $3.6. The move culminated in accelerated selling pressure in early February 2026, with the price falling towards the $1.12 area, after which the asset entered a sideways consolidation phase. The horizontal volume profile formed during this period covers the range between the lower boundary at $1.30 and the upper boundary at $1.50. The point of control (POC) is located between $1.39 and $1.44.

The price is currently trading above the POC zone but below the upper boundary of the profile and is preparing to test the channel boundary. The POC area acts as the nearest support zone during pullbacks. The key support and resistance levels within the horizontal volume range are $1.29 and $1.60 respectively. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 62, 51 and 51 — the main indicator line remains in positive territory and noticeably above the moving averages, indicating continued buyer interest, although the averages themselves remain neutral.

Key Takeaways

In the short term, the direction of XRP/USD will largely depend on regulatory developments in the coming weeks: consideration of the CLARITY Act in the coming days could become the catalyst for a breakout from the current range in either direction. The volume profile and the $1.29 level form the lower support zone, while $1.60 remains the nearest resistance above the current market profile range.

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