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Forex Analysis
Economic calendar for July 24-28: ECB, BoJ and Fed meetings, rebalance of the NASDAQ 100, and Q2 earnings season

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The focus this week falls on the central banks as the Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan all have meetings to review interest rates. The Fed is expected to increase it by 25 bps to 5.5% on Wednesday (21:00) and the ECB by 25 bps to 4.25% on Thursday (15:15), but the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged at -0.1% on Friday (06:00).

In the FX markets, the Japanese yen has been on a volatile ride of late with the sharp moves on Friday after the BoJ report said they see little urgent need to address the side effects of their ultra-loose monetary policy. This sent USDJPY back up just short of 142, and with the gap between US and Japanese rates expected to increase this week, further appreciation would not be a surprise.

The special rebalance of the NASDAQ 100 comes into effect today as it reduces the weighting of heavy-weight companies such as Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Tesla, which previously accounted for almost 44% of the index, down to 38.5%.

Big tech leads the way this week as Q2 earnings season rolls on. All have had strong rallies in their share price this year, Microsoft +44%, Alphabet +34%, Meta +135%, and Amazon +50%. Hence, expectations are high, and any miss of analysts' estimates is likely to see a sharp correction lower like Netflix experienced last week.


All times referenced are server time, GMT +3.

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