It's another big week for economic data, with plenty of news coming out of the central banks around the world. We start with the minutes from the RBA (Tuesday 04:30 GMT+3), which maintained its interest rate at 4.1% earlier in the month but seems open to further hikes if inflation persists. These minutes will provide valuable insight and may inject some volatility into the Australian dollar, which has been on a downward trajectory since the summer.
Oil had another strong week, with WTI trading above $90 a barrel despite an increase in US inventories. Keep an eye on this week’s inventory data on Wednesday (17:30 GMT+3), where drawdowns are expected to return.
On Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate. They currently sit at 5.5%, and most analysts are expecting a pause at this meeting. However, last week, data showed an uptick in inflation, and the jobs market remains buoyant, so it would not be a huge surprise to see another 25 bps hike. It’s also worth staying for the press conference at 21:30 GMT+3, as it always provides some context to the number.
The Bank of England is in a spot of bother as it tries to avoid central bankers’ worst nightmare, stagflation! GDP turned negative last month, and inflation data released on Wednesday (09:00 GMT+3) is expected to show a rise in inflation to 7.1%. The BoE meets on Thursday (14:00 GMT+3) to announce their latest interest rate, which they are expected to hike to 5.5% to limit inflation. However, this could well push the UK into a recession down the road, so there may be few buyers of GBP, which has been depreciating of late.
At some point, Japan will increase its interest rate from the current -0.1%. Still, it is unlikely to be at its meeting this Friday (06:00 GMT+3). However, with other changes already happening in its yield curve policy, take nothing for granted with the new BoJ governor.
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