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What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?

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It is going to be an exciting week for traders once again as we find out if the US Federal Reserve twists or sticks with its current 5.25% interest rate (21:00 Wednesday). Interest rate futures imply there is a 1 in 4 chance of a 25 bps point rise, but with US inflation data released on Tuesday at 15:30, this could significantly change the odds in either direction.

The European Central Bank announces its latest interest rate change at 15:15 on Thursday. A 25 bps hike to 4% is the most likely outcome as it walks the tightrope between inflation (which is falling) and a German recession which is already here.

The Bank of Japan has not had an interest rate change since 2016, and they currently reside at -0.1%, so no change is expected. However, the new BoJ governor announced a review of its monetary path at the last meeting so that change could be coming in the future.

Despite the best efforts of OPEC+ and the Saudis to boost the oil price by cutting production, concerns over global growth, and thus demand for oil, have pushed the price down, with WTI trading at $68.25 on Monday morning. This battle of supply and demand looks set to continue throughout the summer, which should lead to plenty of volatility!

All times referenced are server time, GMT +3.

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