What Events Will Affect Your Trading This Week?


It is going to be an exciting week for traders once again as we find out if the US Federal Reserve twists or sticks with its current 5.25% interest rate (21:00 Wednesday). Interest rate futures imply there is a 1 in 4 chance of a 25 bps point rise, but with US inflation data released on Tuesday at 15:30, this could significantly change the odds in either direction.

The European Central Bank announces its latest interest rate change at 15:15 on Thursday. A 25 bps hike to 4% is the most likely outcome as it walks the tightrope between inflation (which is falling) and a German recession which is already here.

The Bank of Japan has not had an interest rate change since 2016, and they currently reside at -0.1%, so no change is expected. However, the new BoJ governor announced a review of its monetary path at the last meeting so that change could be coming in the future.

Despite the best efforts of OPEC+ and the Saudis to boost the oil price by cutting production, concerns over global growth, and thus demand for oil, have pushed the price down, with WTI trading at $68.25 on Monday morning. This battle of supply and demand looks set to continue throughout the summer, which should lead to plenty of volatility!

All times referenced are server time, GMT +3.

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