Ethereum (ETH) is the second biggest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation after Bitcoin (CoinMarketCap data as of April 7, 2023), facilitating transactions on its decentralised, smart contract-enabled blockchain. The coin has gained around 60% in value since the start of the year as the crypto market looks to emerge from a year-long bear market.

Ethereum’s price has been highly volatile since its launch in 2015 at $0.31, reaching an all-time high of $4,891.70 in November 2021 and falling back towards $1,000 in 2022. With the coin now approaching $2,000 and the latest update to the protocol scheduled, analysts have become more optimistic in their outlook for the Ethereum price in the long term.

Is ETH going to rise? Are you looking for a realistic price prediction for Ethereum? In this FXOpen guide, we look at long-term Ethereum latest price predictions and the major market drivers.

Price History

Ethereum was launched on July 30, 2015 by a group of developers, including Vitalik Buterin. Over the years, the coin has seen dramatic price movements in both directions. After its launch, ETH initially traded at around $1 for several months. But its value began to rise rapidly in early 2016, propelled by a surge of interest in blockchain technology and the potential for Ethereum's smart contract capabilities to develop new decentralised applications (dApps). In June 2016, ETH had risen above $1

First Crypto Rally

In the latter half of 2016, ETH consolidated around $10-15 for several months and then weakened to around $8 by the end of the year. But it began to rise again in early 2017, driven by a wave of initial coin offerings (ICOs) of new cryptocurrencies that were built on the Ethereum platform. With the first major cryptocurrency rally taking off, ETH surpassed $300 in mid-2017, and by the peak of the rally in January 2018, it had set a high of around $1,400.

The digital currency markets turned bearish in early 2018, and ETH was not immune to the decline. By September 2018, it had dropped to around $200, and it remained in that range for much of the year. However, ETH began to recover in early 2019, rising back above $300 by the middle of the year.

ETH began to take off again in the second half of 2020, fuelled by the growth of the decentralised finance (DeFi) sector and the increasing popularity of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the blockchain. ETH ended 2020r at around $700, and then the rally accelerated rapidly in early 2021, lifting the price to a new high of $4,362 in May of that year.

However, the broader markets collapsed later in May on concerns about regulatory intervention as the Chinese government cracked down on crypto mining and Tesla chief executive officer Elon Musk announced that the company would no longer accept Bitcoin payments for environmental reasons. The crypto market declined sharply in the following weeks, and by July, the value of ETH had fallen back below $2,000.

Blockchain Upgrade

A major upgrade to the Ethereum blockchain, called London, went live in August 2021, which adjusted the way transaction fees, known as “gas fees,” were charged, and introduced a new deflationary coin-burning mechanism to reduce ETH’s circulating supply. The development team set out a series of upgrades throughout the year in preparation for shifting the blockchain to a proof-of-stake from a proof-of-work protocol. On proof-of-stake networks, validators stake or lock their coins to the network in exchange for the right to process transactions and add new blocks to the chain, for which they receive new coins as a reward.

The emergence of metaverse applications in the second half of 2021 drove bullish sentiment further, and ETH soared to a fresh all-time high of $4,891 in November. However, the markets sold off again and entered another bear market heading into 2022, known as a “crypto winter”.

Bear Market

A strong US dollar, falling prices on equities markets – particularly technology stocks – and the collapse of several major cryptocurrency exchanges and funds weighed heavily on the market last year. ETH’s value dropped to $1,000 in late June. The completion of the Ethereum blockchain upgrade, known as “The Merge”, in August 2022 saw ETH almost double as it approached $2,000. However, the bearish sentiment prevailed, and by November, ETH was trading below $1,300.

The cryptocurrency market has rallied so far in 2023, bringing ETH to a seven-month high back above $1,900. With another major upgrade on 12 April, what’s next for Ethereum? Let’s consider the factors that may affect the direction of this coin in 2023.

What Will Affect ETH in 2023?

What is the future of Ethereum? Analysts point to several factors that will affect the value of ETH in 2023 and beyond.

Blockchain Upgrade

The latest update to the protocol, Shanghai, will enable the withdrawal of staked ETH tokens from a smart contract. This means that, unlike previous upgrades, the changes could weigh heavily on the coin’s value as stakers could withdraw millions of locked coins and sell them on the open market.

The upgrade could unlock 1.1 million ETH that account for staking rewards earned since January 2021, while failed cryptocurrency lender Celsius Network could sell its 158,000 staked balance as part of its bankruptcy proceedings, adding up to nearly 1.3 million coins worth around $2.4 billion in potential sell-side pressure, according to analysts at K33 Research.

Market Sentiment

Cryptocurrencies are strongly driven by market sentiment, and Ethereum is no exception. Sentiment surrounding the coin has been cautious as traders and observers wonder whether the market is finally emerging from the crypto winter or experiencing a short-lived bear market rally. Many traders remain on the sidelines waiting for clearer indications as to the market’s direction. Analysts note that if the ETH shows signs of a decisive breakout, buyers could return to the market, driving it further up as demand for the coin increases.

US Interest Rate Policy

While most risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, have recovered somewhat in 2023 so far, uncertainty surrounding US Federal Reserve policy presents an elevated risk that markets could resume their downward trend, according to analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. The central bank raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time on 22 March, supporting the US dollar, which has shown an inverse correlation with cryptocurrencies.

Risk assets typically rise and fall in response to liquidity, and a falling US money supply, along with declining bank deposits, indicate headwinds for cryptocurrencies, according to the analysts.

Regulatory Policy

Potential intervention in the digital currency markets by US regulators has contributed to caution among investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is cracking down on cryptocurrencies such as Ripple’s XRP, which it argues are illegally trading as unregistered securities.

In March, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a lawsuit against Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, alleging that it had violated US derivatives laws by not registering with regulators. The New York Attorney General took to court against the KuCoin cryptocurrency exchange.

What Price Will Ethereum Reach?

Given the highly volatile nature of the crypto markets, analysts expect that ETH will likely continue to see wild swings in the future. But what is the projection for Ethereum this year? Will it be able to return to its all-time high approaching $5,000? What is Ethereum expected to reach in the coming years?

Ethereum Price Forecast: 2023

The latest ETH price predictions for 2023 from algorithm-based forecasting services vary widely, although most expect the coin’s value to rise from its current level.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2023 is from Wallet Investor – $1,094.221.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2023 is from Digital Coin Price – $4,155.29.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2023 is from Wallet Investor – $661.697.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2023 is from Digital Coin Price – $4,192.01.

Ethereum Price Forecast: 2024

Algorithm-based forecasts for the Ethereum price in 2024 are mixed, with some predicting that the cryptocurrency will decline, while others indicate that it could reach new highs.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2024 is from Wallet Investor – $117.181.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2024 is from Digital Coin Price – $4,858.98.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2024 is from Wallet Investor – $98.836.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2024 is from Digital Coin Price – $4,640.82.

Ethereum Price Forecast: 2025

How much will Ethereum be worth in 2025? Several algorithmic forecasters show that ETH in 2025 could reach new highs. However, Wallet Investor remains highly bearish on its value in the future, with an Ethereum price target below $100 by December 2025.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2025 is from Wallet Investor – $158.494.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2025 is from Digital Coin Price – $6,028.31.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2025 is from Wallet Investor – $67.534.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2025 is from Digital Coin Price – $6,644.74.

Ethereum Price Prediction: 2026

Algorithm-based forecasts continue to diverge for 2026, with the most bullish Ethereum end-of-year price prediction estimating that the crypto will reach new heights, while others remain bearish.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2026 is from Wallet Investor – $38.707.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2026 is from Digital Coin Price – $7,828.53.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2026 is from Wallet Investor – $28.046.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2026 is from Digital Coin Price – $8,643.75.

Ethereum Price Prediction: 2027

Some analysts have issued long-term forecasts for ETH, showing that it could reach $10,000. Algorithm-based forecaster Price Prediction indicates that the coin could surpass that level in the second half of 2027. Ethereum drop prediction was made by Wallet Investor – ETH may fall to $20 by the middle of the year.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2027 is from Wallet Investor– $24.680.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2027 is from Price Prediction – $8,680.4.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2027 is from Wallet Investor – $20.593.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2027 is from Price Prediction – $10,463.51.

Ethereum Price Forecast: 2028

Is Ethereum expected to rise? There are fewer algorithm-based forecasts for the cryptocurrency’s value in 2028, which is to be expected as market volatility makes it difficult to issue long-term outlook. Digital Coin Price joins Price Prediction in claiming that ETH could trade above the $10,000 mark.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2028 is from Coin Price Forecast – $4,569.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2028 is from Price Prediction – $12,734.18.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2028 is from Coin Price Forecast – $4,775.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2028 is from Price Prediction – $14,765.30.

Ethereum Price Prediction: 2029

How much is Ethereum expected to grow by 2029? The services that have made forecasts as far out as 2029 predict that the crypto market could move higher heading towards the end of the decade. But the values continue to vary widely. Coin Price Forecast predicts the coin could move above $5,000, whereas the Ethereum max price prediction estimates that it could climb above $20,000.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2029 is from Coin Price Forecast – $5,106.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2029 is from Price Prediction – $17,285.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2029 is from Coin Price Forecast – $5,434.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2029 is from Price Prediction – $20,238.47.

Ethereum Price Prediction: 2030

What can Ethereum reach by 2030? The algorithm-based forecasters that have issued outlook for the end of the decade indicate that ETH could continue to breach key levels on the upside.

• The most pessimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2030 is from Coin Price Forecast – $5,760.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of the first half of 2030 is from Price Prediction – $24,630.39.
• The most pessimistic projection for the end of 2030 is from Coin Price Forecast – $5,436.
• The most optimistic projection for the end of 2030 is from Price Prediction – $29,118.95.

Will Ethereum Rise in the Future?

Most algorithmic forecasts for ETH are optimistic, showing that the cryptocurrency could trade at new all-time highs in the coming years. However, forecasts vary greatly, reflecting the significant volatility in the crypto markets.

Forecasts for December 2023 range from $661 to $4,192. The gap widens further by the end of the decade, with the coin estimated to trade anywhere from $5,436 to $29,118.

You can open an FXOpen account to make your own analysis and trade Ethereum via CFDs on the TickTrader platform.

*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.

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