FOREX short term outlook - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD.

FXOpen

General view:

Market seem to be low on volume this morning while sharp moves are paused by periods of appalling volatility. Today’s main focus is Fed’s president, Janet Yellen testimony in Congress, where some details over Fed’s view on 1Q slowdown and possible recovery in coming months may be revealed. Our current assessment shows no signs of significant change in Federal Reserve’s and FOMC’s views on economy (as last FOMC statement proves), but some heavy questions may be difficult to answer and markets like to interpret words in their own way. Therefore we recommend to fasten seatbelts for that time (start at GMT 2:00 p.m.).

EUR/USD pair is heavy after yesterday’s rally towards 1.3950. Recent corrective move touched 1.3910 level (50% retracement) and bounced about 10 pips. More demand can be expected on 1.3900 figure but also in 1.3870/85 area which were strong resistance in previous days.

Any upward move will meet resistance at 1.3950 (yesterday’s high) and 1.3965 (March high which is medium term peak). Many investors are already targeting 1.4000 but that’s not a guarantee that we will reach it, though it could be good target level for short-term bulls.

EUR/USD 5/7/14

EUR/USD 1-hour | Click to enlarge.

USD/JPY is losing ground for the third day in a row.

Pair retraced from tested 103 resistance and touched 101.50 recently.

Below that we have key support area 101.30/101.00 which was the bottom for couple months. We suspect that plenty of stop orders could be placed below this area, as JPY bears would like to defend their long USD/JPY exposition. We anticipate strong defense of this key level, but keep in mind, that Janet Yellen’s testimony may drop pair down the cliff right into these stop loss orders – in this case 100.00 figure would be exposed.

Possible milestones for USD/JPY bulls, after bounce from 101 may lay at 102.00 (today’s Pivot R1, 61.8% – 76.4% retracement of yesterday’s high-low, round level) and further at 102.70/103 (today’s Pivot R3, recent peak – triple top).

USD/JPY 15M vs 4H

USD/JPY 15-minutes vs 4-hour | Click to enlarge.

NZD/USD breaking lower after unemployment data.

Last night’s data showed that New Zealand unemployment rate stalled at 6.0% while median showed decline to 5.8%. With that info bears sold pair heavily from the pick right below yesterday’s low and today’s Pivot S1 at 0.8680.

Further resistance now seen at 0.8700 but the pair seems red enough to go further down without any significant retracement.

Next meaningful support levels are: 0.8630 (Pivot S2, 1-May high) and 0.8600 (round level, 1-2 May low).

Of course Fed’s president congressional testimony will most probably mark its sign on Price Action.

NZD/USD 5/7/14

NZD/USD 30-minutes | Click to enlarge.

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Stay ahead of the market!

Subscribe now to our mailing list and receive the latest market news and insights delivered directly to your inbox.

forex

Forex Trading with FXOpen

Forex Trading with FXOpen

Experience ECN technology for deep liquidity and light-speed trade execution

  • Access over 50 markets
  • Trade with spreads from 0.0 pips
  • Take advantage of commissions from $1.50/lot
Learn more

Latest articles

Gold Price Plunges After Climbing to $3,500 for the First Time
Commodities

Gold Price Plunges After Climbing to $3,500 for the First Time

As the XAU/USD chart shows:
→ Yesterday, the spot gold price stopped just a few cents short of the key psychological level of $3,500 (and even exceeded it on the futures market);
→ But this morning, an ounce is trading

Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Hover Near Psychological Level Ahead of Earnings Report
Shares

Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Hover Near Psychological Level Ahead of Earnings Report

On 31 March, we noted that bearish sentiment could push Alphabet’s (GOOGL) share price towards the psychological level of $150. As the current price chart suggests, GOOGL is now trading close to that very level.

Moreover, the price is

1-Minute Scalping Trading Strategies With Examples
Trader’s Tools

Four 1-Minute Strategies for Scalpers

Scalping is all about speed, precision, and quick decision-making. For traders who thrive in fast-paced environments, 1-minute strategies offer a way to engage with the market. But with such a short timeframe, trading requires a clear plan and sharp execution.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.