FOREX short term outlook - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NZD/USD.


General view:

Market seem to be low on volume this morning while sharp moves are paused by periods of appalling volatility. Today’s main focus is Fed’s president, Janet Yellen testimony in Congress, where some details over Fed’s view on 1Q slowdown and possible recovery in coming months may be revealed. Our current assessment shows no signs of significant change in Federal Reserve’s and FOMC’s views on economy (as last FOMC statement proves), but some heavy questions may be difficult to answer and markets like to interpret words in their own way. Therefore we recommend to fasten seatbelts for that time (start at GMT 2:00 p.m.).

EUR/USD pair is heavy after yesterday’s rally towards 1.3950. Recent corrective move touched 1.3910 level (50% retracement) and bounced about 10 pips. More demand can be expected on 1.3900 figure but also in 1.3870/85 area which were strong resistance in previous days.

Any upward move will meet resistance at 1.3950 (yesterday’s high) and 1.3965 (March high which is medium term peak). Many investors are already targeting 1.4000 but that’s not a guarantee that we will reach it, though it could be good target level for short-term bulls.

EUR/USD 5/7/14

EUR/USD 1-hour | Click to enlarge.

USD/JPY is losing ground for the third day in a row.

Pair retraced from tested 103 resistance and touched 101.50 recently.

Below that we have key support area 101.30/101.00 which was the bottom for couple months. We suspect that plenty of stop orders could be placed below this area, as JPY bears would like to defend their long USD/JPY exposition. We anticipate strong defense of this key level, but keep in mind, that Janet Yellen’s testimony may drop pair down the cliff right into these stop loss orders – in this case 100.00 figure would be exposed.

Possible milestones for USD/JPY bulls, after bounce from 101 may lay at 102.00 (today’s Pivot R1, 61.8% – 76.4% retracement of yesterday’s high-low, round level) and further at 102.70/103 (today’s Pivot R3, recent peak – triple top).

USD/JPY 15M vs 4H

USD/JPY 15-minutes vs 4-hour | Click to enlarge.

NZD/USD breaking lower after unemployment data.

Last night’s data showed that New Zealand unemployment rate stalled at 6.0% while median showed decline to 5.8%. With that info bears sold pair heavily from the pick right below yesterday’s low and today’s Pivot S1 at 0.8680.

Further resistance now seen at 0.8700 but the pair seems red enough to go further down without any significant retracement.

Next meaningful support levels are: 0.8630 (Pivot S2, 1-May high) and 0.8600 (round level, 1-2 May low).

Of course Fed’s president congressional testimony will most probably mark its sign on Price Action.

NZD/USD 5/7/14

NZD/USD 30-minutes | Click to enlarge.

Trade global forex with the Innovative Broker of 2022*. Choose from 50+ forex markets 24/5. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

* FXOpen International, Innovative Broker of 2022, according to the IAFT

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Latest from Forex Analysis

Market Analysis: US Dollar On the Rise Despite Weak PMI Data Market Analysis: GBP/USD Nosedives While USD/CAD Aims Higher EUR/USD Analysis: Key Support Zone Resists Selling Pressure USD/JPY Analysis: Rate Reaches Maximum of the Year Market Analysis: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY

Latest articles

Forex Analysis

Market Analysis: US Dollar On the Rise Despite Weak PMI Data

EUR/USDThe euro fell against the US dollar on Friday as economic data showed a contraction in economic activity, which could prompt European Central Bank hawks to soften their policy stance. Preliminary data indicates a contraction in economic activity in

Financial Market News

Economic calendar: NASDAQ 100 May Keep Falling, High Volatility in Oil Markets, Potential Appreciation of the US Dollar

The US, Japan and the UK may have kept interest rates on hold last week, but with the Federal Reserve indicating that rates will stay higher for longer, there is turmoil in the equity markets. The NASDAQ 100 fell 500

Financial Market News

Financial Markets Waking Up after a Turbulent Week: Important News

The main event of last week was information from the Fed. Jerome Powell once again demonstrated his determination to maintain a tough political stance, which caused: → increase in bond yields. Yields on 10-year securities reached their highest since 2009; → the

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.