GBP/USD and GBP/EUR Analysis: The Hyperbole around British Pound Indicates a Huge Decline, but a Long-term View Says Otherwise


The British Pound has been on a remarkable upward trajectory against major peers, including the US Dollar and Euro, since the beginning of the third week of July.

However, in the days that followed, the Pound's momentum appeared to be slowing down, leading to the use of sensationalist language from some commentators to describe the market events surrounding the British Pound in the last 24 hours.

One mainstream news channel in the United Kingdom went so far as to compare the recent decline to the worst downward run since March 2020, a time when the government implemented forced closures of businesses and restrictions on personal movement.

The reason cited for this temporary slowdown in the Pound's value is somewhat rudimentary, with reports indicating that the Bank of England may no longer need to raise official borrowing costs from 5% to over 6% to address inflation concerns. While this may have contributed to the recent dip, it is crucial to view the situation in context and consider the bigger picture.

What events will affect the value going forward?

Notably, the drop from the high 1.16 range to the current 1.15 against the Euro is only a minor setback, given that it traded at levels between 1.12 and 1.14 against the Euro for much of February, March, and April this year.

Despite the recent decline against the US Dollar over five consecutive days, the Pound remains in a robust position. At present, the British Pound is still relatively buoyant, with exchange rates at 1.15 against the Euro and 1.29 against the US Dollar.

Indicative pricing only
Indicative pricing only

Looking ahead to the rest of the year can provide a more comprehensive view, free from the immediate impact of interest rate changes or fluctuating economic figures.

As the British Pound's value appears to be viewed from two camps, investors and analysts are keeping a close eye on the charts to discern its trajectory. While recent fluctuations may cause momentary concern, the overall sentiment toward the Pound remains positive, with long-term projections indicating a potential upswing.

Numerous sources, including reputable exchange rate research entities in the UK, have expressed optimism for the Pound's performance in the long term.

Some Tier 1 FX interbank dealers have taken a positive stance, forecasting potential rates of 1.35 for the Pound against the US Dollar by the end of 2023 and even 1.40 by the end of 2024.

Ultimately, the Pound's performance will be influenced by a myriad of factors, from central bank decisions to economic indicators and global events. As market conditions continue to evolve, cautious optimism remains the key approach in evaluating the Pound's future performance against its major peers.

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