ETH/USD Analysis: Ethereum Price Consolidates Near a 16-Month Low

As shown in the ETH/USD chart today, 11 March, Ethereum’s price dropped below $1,800 for the first time since autumn 2023. However:
→ the daily candle closed near its highs;
→ if the bearish candle on 14 March was an attempt to resume the downtrend, it proved unsuccessful.

Thus, we observe:
→ Ethereum’s price fluctuating around $1,880 with no signs of a renewed downtrend;
→ indications that the market has reached a temporary supply-demand equilibrium—suggesting price consolidation. It seems that selling pressure has weakened.

What could happen next?

Technical Analysis of the ETH/USD Chart

To assess ETH/USD price movements in a broader perspective over the past year:
→ the red channel illustrates Ethereum’s price dynamics;
→ blue markers highlight key interaction points between the price and channel lines (boundaries and median), reinforcing the channel’s relevance.

Applying the theory of cyclical fluctuations and market pendulum dynamics—popularised by Howard Marks in Mastering the Market Cycle—we can assume:

→ when ETH surged above the channel’s upper boundary in December 2024, driven partly by optimism surrounding Trump’s election victory, the market pendulum accumulated significant energy for the next movement (which appears to be the decline seen since early 2025);

→ now, the pendulum is nearing its lower point (where an asset’s price falls below its intrinsic value). Therefore, the next movement could be an upward shift towards the median, which currently sits around $2,500.

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