EUR/JPY Analysis: New High of the Year


For the first time since 2008, the rate exceeded the level of 161 yen per euro.

The strength of the euro and the weakness of the yen are contributed to by different policies of central banks.

The European Central Bank's chief economist said on Wednesday that he had not seen enough progress in curbing inflation. This may mean a continuation of the ECB's tight monetary policy and the “expensive euro”. The head of Ireland's central bank said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes should not be ruled out, while the Bundesbank president said the "last mile" to the inflation target could be the hardest.

At the same time, in Japan, interest rates are effectively negative, making the yen fundamentally weak against the euro. The uptrend channel on the EUR/JPY pair (shown in blue) dates back to 2022. The stability of the trend is also evidenced by the upward-directed MA (100) — the rate is stably above it.

→ the psychological level of 160 yen worked as an important resistance in 2023, but in November the price consolidates higher;
→ yesterday, the bulls broke through the level of 161 yen per euro;
→ The RSI rises into the overbought zone, making the market vulnerable to a pullback.

At the same time, it is acceptable to assume that the yen may strengthen as a result of statements by representatives of the Japanese authorities (former or even current) about changing the monetary policy. As such, signals are increasingly broadcast through the media, 2024 could be the period when the yen situation changes from verbal interventions to real actions (including rate hikes).

Taking into account the above, one should not exclude the scenario of a return to the level of 160 yen per dollar, especially taking into account the fact that this level was not clearly tested after the bullish breakout.

Trade global forex with the Innovative Broker of 2022*. Choose from 50+ forex markets 24/5. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

* FXOpen International, Innovative Broker of 2022, according to the IAFT

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Latest from Forex Analysis

AUD/JPY Analysis: Rate Falls to Important Support EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Stable Despite Weak Employment Data Will rate hikes end when 2023 ends? USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and EUR/USD Analysis: The US Dollar Corrected in Anticipation of PMI Data Release EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Weakens after Fed Chairman's Comments

Latest articles

Financial Market News

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: AUD/JPY, RATE HIKES, S&P 500, WTI Oil

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of  FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights. AUD/JPY: Rate Falls

Trader’s Tools

Fixed Exchange Rates: Benefits and Limitations

Fixed exchange rates, a cornerstone of international finance, play a pivotal role in shaping global commerce and investment landscapes. This article delves into their intricacies, exploring the historical evolution, practical understanding, and the balance of benefits and challenges they present.

Trader’s Tools

Alternative Investment Options

Traders and investors are increasingly turning to alternative investment options to diversify their portfolios and seek new avenues for potential returns. In this FXOpen article, we discuss alternative investments, examining the types and explaining the reasons why they are gaining

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.