The EUR/USD pair today is moving under the influence of several factors:

• Donald Trump’s decision to dismiss Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, raising concerns over the Fed’s independence;
• expectations of a Fed rate cut in September;
• anticipation of US GDP and jobless claims data (due today at 15:30 GMT+3);
• the political crisis in France.

These and other drivers pushed the pair down to a 20-day low yesterday (with a local low L3 formed on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart), before it staged a firm recovery.

EUR/USD Chart Technical Analysis

At the start of the week, we:
→ outlined a descending channel (shown in red);
→ drew an interim upward price trajectory (purple lines);
→ highlighted bearish signs (for instance, the lower purple line acting as resistance), suggesting a possible attempt to break key support at 1.1600.

Yesterday’s price action confirmed such an attempt, but it triggered renewed demand. The bulls prevented further downside momentum, leaving EUR/USD trading above 1.1600 today.

At the same time:
→ with the formation of the L3 low, a bullish engulfing pattern can be observed;
→ the sequence of higher highs (H1→H2→H3) alongside lower lows (L1→L2→L3) forms a megaphone pattern.

As for resistance, the 1.1660 level stands out – bears were successful here when they broke through the lower boundary of the interim upward trajectory, and this zone also coincides with the axis of the megaphone pattern.

Thus, we could assume that in the near term EUR/USD may fluctuate within the 1.1600–1.1660 range, until sentiment shifts – for example, due to statements from Washington or fresh US labour market data.

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