EURUSD Analysis: Market Reaction To The Fed's Decision

The Fed raised the rate yesterday by 0.25%, to 5.25%.

→ Now market participants expect a pause in the tightening policy. Moreover, the WSJ is hinting that the rate hike cycle may already be over.

→ According to Powell, it is important to raise the US debt ceiling, but not just raise it, but raise it on time (that is, not drag it out).

→ The Fed believes that the banking system is reliable and there is no cause for concern (by the way, PacWest bank shares fell 50% yesterday — bank management is considering selling it).

Although the decision was expected, it caused increased volatility:

→ US stock market indexes declined.

→ Gold jumped in price.

→ The US dollar index fell to dollar lows. Accordingly, the major currencies rose against the USD.

The daily chart shows that EURUSD is near the high of the year. Note, however, that each of the two renewals of the year's high in April (shown by the arrows) was minor, followed by a pullback. This indicates the strength of sellers around the level of 1.100. It looks like the level is working as a serious resistance preventing the continuation of the uptrend (shown by the blue channel).

By the way, today at 15:15 GMT+3 the decision on the ECB rate will be published (an increase of 0.25% is also expected).

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