The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation:

→ Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level.
→ Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart.

Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground.

The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran.

Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500 Chart

News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction.

At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand.

Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by:
→ Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East);
→ U.S. retail sales data, due today at 15:30 GMT+3.

It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle, potentially triggering a new directional trend.

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